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I get a lot of questions about combinations of craps bets. Your mistake is that both bets are not resolved all of the time. When you win either the 6 or 8 you are taking the other bet down, which brings down the expected loss because you are betting less.
So your math is right but you are comparing apples to oranges. There are various ways of using cards in place of dice and still have the odds exactly the same.
One way is to use two separate decks, thus there is no effect of removal. Another way is to have a 7-card deck, featuring the numbers 1 to 6, plus a seventh "double" card.
The first card drawn can never be the double card. If it is then it is put back in and the process repeats from the beginning. If the double card is drawn second then it counts as whatever the first number drawn was.
Regardless of how the casino does it I have never seen hard evidence of a case where the odds were different than if two dice were used.
So I think you are omitting something from the rules. They sought out my advice on how to best achieve this goal quickly.
I was limited to the games at the Golden Nugget. The Nugget has 10x odds in craps, which I felt offered the opportunity to achieve the goal.
Then a point was rolled, I think a 6 or 8. On the second roll the shooter sevened out. So the entire grand was lost in two rolls. To answer the first question, I think that for purposes of going for a quick big win the pass line is better.
To answer the second question, there is not much difference between 9x odds and 10x odds and I thought it would look better on television to be betting only black chips, at least to start.
As my blackjack section shows, the 2 to 1 on blackjacks is worth 2. Otherwise the rules look standard. All things considered, the house edge in the blackjack game has a player advantage of 2.
Every time this happens you get an extra unit, so it is worth 5. Normally the house edge on the come bet is 1.
So I agree that craps was the better game to play. The following table shows the house edge of place and buy bets, assuming there were no rounding of winnings.
Place and Buy Bets in Crapless Crapspass and buying oddsin Crapless Craps Bet Pays Prob. Win House Edge Place 2, 12 11 to 2 0. That is very tight to limit the dealers like that.
We can see from my analysis of the Fire Bet that the probability of a shooter making all six points is 0. The next question to be asked is what is the expected loss per shooter.
The tricky part is how many pass line bets will a shooter make, on average. There are four possible states the shooter can be in.
Let's define each one as the expected number of future pass line bets for that shooter. Finally, the expected return is the expected win divided by the expected bet: 0.
So the house edge is However you have to compare that to the probability of rolling a losing combination. The hard six pays more because the probability of winning is less.
Crapless Craps offers those two bets too. Same probability is the same for the In this case fair odds would be 6 to 1. In Crapless Craps the place bet on the 2 and 12 pays 11 to 2.
Using this formula, the house edge on the 2 and 12 is In Crapless Craps the 3 and 11 pay 11 to 4. This question was raised and discussed in the forum of my companion site Wizard of Vegas.
Sevening out. Repeating a point already made 4 to 9. Rolling a 10 on the come out roll, and then making it. We need to quantify the second and third probabilities only.
The shooter will eventually make a point, and then eventually make it or seven out. The probability that the point established and then made is 4 to 9 is:.
Let p be the probability of making a 10 point before sevening out. If the player makes any other point, he is right back to where he started from.
So, the expected number of points per shooter is 0. This question was asked at TwoPlusTwo. The following solution is the same method as that of BruceZ, who deserves proper credit.
It is a difficult answer, so pay attention. First, consider the expected number of rolls to obtain a total of two. Next, consider the expected number of rolls to get both a two and three.
We already know it will take 36 rolls, on average, to get the two. If the three is obtained while waiting for the two, then no additional rolls will be needed for the 3.
However, if not, the dice will have to be rolled more to get the three. Next, consider how many more rolls you will need for a four as well.
By the time you roll the two and three, if you didn't get a four yet, then you will have to roll the dice 12 more times, on average, to get one.
What is the probability of getting the four before achieving the two and three? First, let's review a common rule of probability for when A and B are not mutually exclusive:.
The probability of not getting the four along the way to the two and three is 1. Next, consider how many more rolls you will need for a five as well.
What is the probability of getting the five before achieving the two, three, or four? Calculation of the player's edge for all the major bets in craps.
House edge for all the major craps bets. Dice Setting Expectations for the Dice Setter Craps Side Bets California Craps - Craps with Cards.
Basic craps Statistics One question I get asked a lot is "what is the probability of a shooter lasting x rolls in craps?
Online Craps Bonuses View All There are a bunch of craps bonuses out there, but not all of them are created equally. Craps News.
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Additional Craps Articles. My articles on Craps. Books - Wizard Reviewed Craps: Take the Money and Run by Henry J. Tamburin The only thing I don't like about this book is the title.
Free Craps Trainer Practice playing craps with my new and improved craps game.. Play Trainer. Ask The Wizard The Dice Probability Free Odds Other Bets Craps FAQ Craps in general.
Craps Variations Crapless Craps Card Craps Street Dice Die Rich Hazard Ricochet. Craps - FAQ I made the mistake of making a pass line bet in craps Larry Is there a casino that teaches how to play craps?
Marty After reviewing your section on house edge in craps, I am very confused about tw Point: Rolling a 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10 — establishes the point for the next round of rolling.
Mark Zegarelli is the author of many successful For Dummies titles on math, logic, and test prep topics. Using Probability to Calculate the Odds in the Game of Craps.
About the Book Author Mark Zegarelli is the author of many successful For Dummies titles on math, logic, and test prep topics.
Thanks to real money craps betting online, as well as on mobile devices, you can put your skills to the test and maybe even win a nice stash. That will help you to sit at the higher stakes tables in a real casino with confidence.
By Samantha Beckett May 12, Most Popular. December 18, — 5 min read. Sports Top 10s.Basic craps Statistics. One question I get asked a lot is "what is the probability of a shooter lasting x rolls in craps?" The following table answers that question for up to 50 rolls. The first column is the roll number. The second column is the probability of a seven-out on exactly that roll. 5/12/ · The name craps derives from the French crapaud, meaning toad, which is probably a reference to the way players would squat down to shoot dice on the streets when craps .
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